Assessing Potential Earthquake Loss in Mérida State, Venezuela Using Hazus

Abstract

The focus of the Hazus earthquake model has been largely U.S. centric due to a lack of standardized building-infrastructure data formats applicable elsewhere. In a combined effort between FEMA Region VIII and the Universidad de Los Andes, Venezuela, the present study uses the Hazus 2.1 software to simulate earthquake loss estimations for Venezuela. Population totals and demographic distributions were developed using Oak Ridge National Labs Landscan 2008 population data and the census 2011 for Venezuela. The accuracy of the model was further enhanced for Mérida State, located in western Venezuela, by collecting, incorporating, and developing region and specific inventories including soil maps, liquefaction and landslide susceptibility studies, demographic data, and building inventory information. We used USGS ShakeMaps scenarios for two potential earthquake events with peak ground accelerations proposed within Performance Based Seismic Engineering of Buildings, VISION 2000 recommendations. The region has not witnessed an earthquake with a magnitude greater than M 7 in the last 120 years. Given the historical record of seismicity and the seismotectonics in the region, it becomes increasingly important to understand the potential implications from moderate to large earthquakes in Mérida State, Venezuela.