An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility for China, 1952–2000

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952–2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988 Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 231–254. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Johansen & Juselius (1990 Johansen, S and Juselius, K. 1990. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52: 169–210. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10–12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development – consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis – played a key role in China's fertility transition.