Risk Analysis · 2001 · 169 citations · 0 references
ComputingBiostatisticsRisk AnalysisStatisticsUncertainty QuantificationBayesian InferenceBayesian ModelingBayesian StatisticsProbabilistic ModelingSensitivity AnalysisUncertainty AnalysisBayesian AnalysisBayesian Model UncertaintyBayesian UncertaintyBayesian Uncertainty AnalysisBayesian Uncertainty EstimationMonte Carlo AnalysisMonte Carlo Uncertainty AnalysisPrior Distribution Specification
Standard statistical methods understate the uncertainty one should attach to effect estimates obtained from observational data. Among the methods used to address this problem are sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo risk analysis (MCRA), and Bayesian uncertainty assessment. Estimates from MCRAs have been presented as if they were valid frequentist or Bayesian results, but examples show that they need not be either in actual applications. It is concluded that both sensitivity analyses and MCRA should begin with the same type of prior specification effort as Bayesian analysis.