Use of immunological markers and continuous-time Markov models to estimate progression of HIV infection in homosexual men

Abstract

CD4 lymphocyte counts and anti-CD3 reactivity are each associated with an increased hazard for progression to AIDS. Therefore, men in different CD4-stages (anti-CD3 stages) follow different incubation period distributions to AIDS. However, anti-CD3 predicts progression less well than CD4 cell count. Staged time-continuous Markov models are useful to study immunological markers for HIV disease progression.