Uncertainty analysis for wind energy production with dynamic power curves

Abstract

The production of wind energy often involves uncertainties due to the stochastic nature of wind speeds and the variation of the power curve. The latter occurs when a fleet of wind turbine generators (WTG) of the same type are deployed in the wind farm, yet each generator may produce different amounts of powers given the same wind speed. This paper aims to characterize the dynamics of the wind energy production and estimate the power uncertainty when a WTG operates between the cut-in wind speed and the rated wind speed. We propose a probabilistic model to characterize the dynamics of the output power assuming the power follows the normal distribution with a varying mean and a constant standard deviation. Based on that condition, the mean and the variance for the total wind energy production are derived by incorporating the stochastic wind speed and the power dynamics. Both simulations and numerical examples are provided to verify and illustrate the new model, respectively.