A two-mutation model of radiation carcinogenesis: application to lung tumours in rodents and implications for risk evaluation

Abstract

An attempt is made to develop a model for radiation carcinogenesis linking DNA damage to malignancy. A modification of the two-stage model for carcinogenesis developed by Knudson and Moolgavkar (see J. Natl. Acad. Sci. (USA), vol. 68, p. 1037-52, 1981) is combined with a linear-quadratic dose response model for cellular radiation effects to analyse radiation induced lung tumours in rodents for a variety of radiation types and conditions. The combined model provides the possibility of calculating the age dependent and dose dependent incidence of cancer simultaneously and is used to fit data of lung tumours in mice and rats exposed to different radiation types. The satisfactory application of the combined model to animal data has led to an examination of the implications of the model, which may prove to be far-reaching for the extrapolation of risk to low doses, the effect of life exposures and other aspects of radiation risk assessment.