Effects of surface heat flux‐induced sea surface temperature changes on tropical cyclone intensity

Abstract

It is known that in deep and open oceans, the effect of sea surface sensible and evaporative heat fluxes on the tropical cyclone‐induced sea surface cooling is small compared to that caused by turbulent mixing and cold water entrainment into the upper ocean mixed‐layer. This study shows that tropical cyclone‐induced surface heat fluxes dominate the surface cooling in near‐coastal shallow ocean regions with limited or no underlying cold water. The thermal response of the ocean to the surface heat fluxes is nearly one dimensional through very quick vertical mixing in the ocean mixed layer. The flux‐induced sea surface cooling may lead to appreciable reduction of storm intensity if the storm moves slowly. It is therefore important to account this negative feedback of ocean coupling in near‐coastal regions for more skillful forecasting of landfalling tropical cyclones.