Uncertainty Analysis in Photovoltaic Cell Parameter Estimation

Abstract

This paper describes a theoretical approach to evaluate the uncertainty on the series and shunt resistances estimated by the seven-parameter (double diode) model of a photovoltaic (PV) cell using data commonly provided by panel manufacturers, measured environmental parameters, and semiempirical equations. After a brief survey on the state of the art and the treatment of the double-diode model, the procedure proposed by the authors, to estimate the unknown parameters, is illustrated. The theoretical expression of the uncertainty, which affects the estimation of the series and shunt resistances (namely, <formula formulatype="inline" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex Notation="TeX">$R_{s}$</tex></formula> and <formula formulatype="inline" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex Notation="TeX">$R_{\rm sh}$</tex></formula> ) of a PV cell, is then derived. A statistical analysis performed by means of a Monte Carlo simulation is in agreement with the theoretical expression of the uncertainty.