SINDH SUMMER (JUNE-SEPTEMBER) MONSOON RAINFALL PREDICTION

Abstract

study effort has been made to examine the relationship of Sindh monsoon rainfall with some of very important global & regional parameters. The Sindh Monsoon rainfall indices (SMRI) were examine with the monthly mean values of SST(SEA Surface Temperature), IHP (Indian Ocean High Pressure), SOI (Southern Oscillation Index), NHT (Northern Hemisphere Temperature), Pakistan's provincials & coastal data. It has been found that the SMRI is significantly correlated with SOI, IHP, Mean pressure & temperature of Balochistan, Mean temperature of Punjab, Mean Monthly Maximum Temperature of Pasni & Jawani. Multiple regression equations have been developed using these predicators for thirty years (1961 to 1990) of monthly mean values. These equations then applied on the eight later years i.e. 1991 to 1998 and gave significant results. Introduction: is situated in Southwest Asia. Its north and northwest covered with high-rise mountains. The whole of the country lies approximately between 23.5 °N to 37 °N and 61 °E to 77°E. Pakistan is divided into four provinces namely Punjab, NWFP, Balochistan and Sindh. River Indus and its tributaries are the main rivers. These rivers flow from the north to south towards Arabian Sea. Plain in the south is the Sindh plain. The Sindh plain comprises mainly the province of Sindh. During the summer monsoon period (July to September) easterly systems/depressions form in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, that produces rainfall over Pakistan. The rain bearing system coming from the Bay of Bengal and the depression that locally forms near the coastal region of Sindh province are mainly responsible for the rainfall over this area. The monsoon precipitation plays a very important role in the social and economic development of Pakistan. Nearly 60% of annual rainfall over most parts of Pakistan is received during summer (June to September). Rainfall occurs primarily due to differential heating of the land and sea.