VOTER TURNOUT IN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES

Abstract

This article examines changes in the turnout of registered voters in presidential primaries over the last 12 years that result from changes in the primary environment. While previous research has been limited to static, cross-sectional analysis, we undertake a diachronic analysis of the link between changes in voter turnout and changes in the electoral framework and strategic campaign components of the primary environment. By making a controlled comparison of the impact of such changes on voter turnout, we are able to gauge the sensitivity of electorate responsiveness to primary environment change. In contrast to previous research, we find little or no difference between the behavior of Republican and Democratic electorates and no spillover effect on voter turnout. It is suggested that those interested in increasing voter turnout in the presidential primaries should focus on the design of competition, since turnout is considerably more sensitive to changes in strategic campaign factors than to changes in electoral framework factors.