Generation of High Resolution Scenarios for Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources (I): Climate Scenarios on Each Sub-basins

Abstract

To evaluate the climate change impacts on water resources, this study generates and analyzes the climate change scenarios for 139 sub-basins in Korea using high resolution () SHES A2 scenario and LARS-WG. The high resolution NCAR/PSU MM5 scenario is downscaled from 350km horizontal resolution ECHO-G data. The A2 scenario relatively well reproduced Korean spatial precipitation characteristics, but it underestimated the precipitation over the Han River and the Gum River basins. The LARS-WG was selected and evaluated to overcome the limitation of climate model and to create a highly reliable climate scenario. The results show that the monthly mean minimum and maximum temperature and monthly mean precipitation are within from the observed mean, and from the standard deviation that represents the generated data are highly reliable. Moreover, the comparison results between observed data and generated data from LARS-WG show that the latter can reflect the regional climate characteristic very well that can not be simulated from the former.