PMP and PMF estimations in sparsely-gauged Andean basins and climate change projections

Abstract

Mixed-regime Andean basins present a complex scenario for flood analysis. In this study, we propose a methodology for incorporating orographic effects influenced by mountainous barriers in the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimation method in sparsely-gauged basins. The proposed methodology is applied to the Puclaro Reservoir basin in Chile, which is affected by the Andes. The PMP estimations were calculated by applying statistical and hydrometeorological approaches to the baseline (1960–1999) and climate change scenarios (2045–2065) determined from projections of the ECHAM5 general circulation model. Temperature projections for the 2040–2065 period show that there would be a rise in the catchment contributing area that would lead to an increase in the average liquid precipitation over the basin. Temperature projections would also affect the maximization factors in the calculation of the PMP, as precipitable water content, raising it to 126.6% and 62.5% under scenarios A2 and B1, respectively; the probable maximum flood (PMF) would increase to +175.5% under the A2 scenario. These projections would affect the safety of dam design and would be generalizable to zones with similar mixed hydrology and climate change projections. We propose that the methodology presented could be also applied to basins with similar characteristics. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Porporato