Responses of energy use to climate change: A climate modeling study

Abstract

Using a general‐circulation climate model to drive an energy‐use model, we projected changes in USA energy‐use and in corresponding fossil‐fuel CO 2 emissions through year 2025 for a low (1.2°C) and a high (3.4°C) temperature response to CO 2 doubling. The low‐ΔT scenario had a cumulative (2003–2025) energy increase of 1.09 quadrillion Btu (quads) for cooling/heating demand. Northeastern states had net energy reductions for cooling/heating over the entire period, but in most other regions energy increases for cooling outweighed energy decreases for heating. The high‐ΔT scenario had significantly increased warming, especially in winter, so decreased heating needs led to a cumulative (2003–2025) heating/cooling energy decrease of 0.82 quads. In both scenarios, CO 2 emissions increases from electricity generation outweighed CO 2 emissions decreases from reduced heating needs. The results reveal the intricate energy‐economy structure that must be considered in projecting consequences of climate warming for energy, economics, and fossil‐fuel carbon emissions.