Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Mediterranean Basin: a case study in Catalonia, Spain

Abstract

Most climate change projections show important decreases in water availability in the Mediterranean region by the end of this century. We assess those main climate change impacts on water resources in three medium-sized catchments with varying climatic conditions in north-eastern Spain. A combination of hydrological modelling and climate projections with B1 and A2 IPCC emission scenarios is performed to infer future stream flows. The largest reduction (22-48% for 2076-2100) of stream flows is expected in the headwaters of the two wettest catchments, while lower decreases (22-32% for 2076-2100) are expected in the drier one. In all three catchments, autumn and summer are the seasons with the most notable projected decreases in stream flow, 50% and 34%, respectively (2076-2100). Thus, ecological flows might be noticeably impacted by climate change in the catchments, especially in the headwaters of those wet catchments.