Population Cost Prediction on Public Healthcare Datasets

Abstract

The increasing availability of digital health records should ideally improve accountability in healthcare. In this context, the study of predictive modeling of healthcare costs forms a foundation for accountable care, at both population and individual patient-level care. In this research we use machine learning algorithms for accurate predictions of healthcare costs on publicly available claims and survey data. Specifically, we investigate the use of the regression trees, M5 model trees and random forest, to predict healthcare costs of individual patients given their prior medical (and cost) history.