Projected impact of climate change on the freshwater and salt budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a global climate model

Abstract

The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150‐year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50‐year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea‐ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea‐ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea‐surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi‐phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.