Information-theoretic optimality of observation-driven time series models for continuous responses

Abstract

We investigate information-theoretic optimality properties of the score function of the predictive likelihood as a device for updating a real-valued time-varying parameter in a univariate observation-driven model with continuous responses.We restrict our attention to models with updates of one lag order. The results provide theoretical justification for a class of score-driven models which includes the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model as a special case. Ourmain contribution is to show that only parameter updates based on the score will always reduce the local Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true conditional density and themodel-implied conditional density. This result holds irrespective of the severity of modelmisspecification. We also show that use of the score leads to a considerably smaller global Kullback- Leibler divergence in empirically relevant settings. We illustrate the theory with an application to time-varying volatility models. We show that the reduction in Kullback-Leibler divergence across a range of different settings can be substantial compared to updates based on, for example, squared lagged observations.