On the theory of screening for chronic diseases

TLDR

Chronic disease is assumed to progress from a pre‑clinical to a clinical state, and early detection programmes can identify disease in the pre‑clinical state, potentially providing benefit proportional to the lead time gained. The study develops a stochastic model for early detection programmes to estimate mean lead time as a function of observable variables. The authors also investigate a non‑progressive disease model in which pre‑clinical individuals may not progress to the clinical state.

Abstract

It is assumed that a chronic disease progresses from a pre-clinical state to a clinical state. If an individual, having pre-clinical disease, participates in an early detection programme, the disease may be detected in the pre-clinical state. The potential benefit of a screening programme is related to the lead time gained by early diagnosis. A stochastic model is developed for early detection programmes which leads to an estimate of the mean lead time as a function of observable variables. An investigation is also made of a non-progressive disease model in which individuals in a pre-clinical state may not necessarily advance to the clinical state.