Coupling tourism development and agricultural processes in a dynamic environment

Abstract

The role of agriculture in the Israeli economy has been declining, and a combination of essential trends has resulted in the emergence of tourism as alternative sources of economic growth in rural areas. These changes have created a new situation, in which tourism-related developments in the rural areas of Israel have become part of the activities of many farm owners. Thus, the Israeli rural environment is a single, tightly coupled system and should be analysed as such. The growth of rural tourism in the Israeli agricultural sector raises several questions, addressing whether rural tourism and farming are synergetic, and the effects of tight coupling between tourism development and agricultural processes. This article presents a simulation model of the coupling effects in which tourism development and agricultural processes are tightly coupled. Our model examined large numbers of different scenarios and the possible outcomes of a decision the farm owner takes in a routine situation of uncertainty. A typical Israeli farm owner embarks on tourism development activities mainly because of stress. Our model shows that adding tourism activities does not increase profit dramatically, but it does increase the variance of profit, which means greater exposure to risks.