Probabilistic load flow by a multilinear simulation algorithm

Abstract

Load flow analysis is undoubtedly the most useful method of designing and operating power systems. The input data necessary for these studies are best described by random variables, considering the probabilistic nature of loads, generation and networks. The effects of uncertainties on the steady-state behaviour of power systems can be evaluated by a stochastic or probabilistic load flow (PLF) analysis. This paper presents a new method for obtaining the PLF solution, by combining Monte Carlo simulation techniques and linearised power flow equations for different system load levels. The performance of the proposed algorithm is illustrated through the IEEE 14-busbar test system, and also through its application in part of the Brazilian network.