An Advanced System for Modeling Asymmetric Threats

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce an advanced software tool for modeling asymmetric threats, the Adaptive Safety Analysis and Monitoring (ASAM) system. The ASAM system is a hybrid model-based system for assisting intelligence analysts to identify asymmetric threats, to predict possible evolution of the suspicious activities, and to suggest strategies for countering threats. It employs a novel combination of hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Bayesian networks (BNs) to compute the likelihood that a certain threat exists. It provides a distributed processing structure for gathering, sharing, understanding, and using information to assess and predict adversary network states. We illustrate the capabilities of the ASAM system by way of application to a hypothetical model of development of nuclear weapons program by an unknown hostile country. The simulation results show that the ASAM system is able to detect the modeled pattern with a high performance (greater than 95% clutter suppression capability).