The Future of Biodiversity

TLDR

Recent extinction rates are 100 to 1000 times pre‑human levels across diverse taxa, with endemic‑rich regions dominating global patterns, yet limited knowledge of these areas hampers accurate future extinction estimates. If all currently threatened species were lost in the next century, future extinction rates would rise tenfold, though some threatened species may survive while many non‑threatened species could also go extinct.

Abstract

Recent extinction rates are 100 to 1000 times their pre-human levels in well-known, but taxonomically diverse groups from widely different environments. If all species currently deemed "threatened" become extinct in the next century, then future extinction rates will be 10 times recent rates. Some threatened species will survive the century, but many species not now threatened will succumb. Regions rich in species found only within them (endemics) dominate the global patterns of extinction. Although new technology provides details of habitat losses, estimates of future extinctions are hampered by our limited knowledge of which areas are rich in endemics.