A dynamically‐based method for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis location in the Atlantic sector using global model products

Abstract

A real‐time forecast method is developed for prediction of the tropical cyclogenesis location over the Atlantic using global model operational products. The method is based on the marsupial theory for tropical cyclogenesis proposed in a recent observational study. A moisture front is usually found ahead of the precursor wave trough, which separates the relatively dry air outside of the wave pouch (a region of closed circulation) from the relatively moist air inside the wave pouch. The propagation speed of the pouch can be determined by tracking the propagation of this moisture front, and the intersection of the critical surface and the trough axis pinpoints the predicted genesis location. Using the global model operational products the genesis location can be predicted up to three days in advance with an error less than 200 km, which can provide useful guidance for forecasters and flight planning.