Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?

Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss

Graham Elliott, Ivana Komunjer, Allan Timmermann · The Review of Economic Studies · 2005 · 342 citations

Business, Business Economics, Economics +15

ON TESTING FOR UNBIASEDNESS AND EFFICIENCY OF FORECASTS*

K. Holden, David Peel · Manchester School · 1990 · 283 citations

Business, Decision Sciences, Mathematics +10

Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?

Graham Elliott, Ivana Komunjer, Allan Timmermann · Journal of the European Economic Association · 2008 · 278 citations · Full text

Social Sciences, Economics, Behavioral Economics +13

An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve

Fred Joutz, H. O. Stekler · International Journal of Forecasting · 2000 · 133 citations

Social Sciences, Economics, Public Finance +6

Economic Forecasts and Expectations

Jati K. Sengupta, Jacob Mincer · Econometrica · 1972 · 106 citations

Business, Business Economics, Economics +10