Estimating Dynamic Dual Models under Nonstatic Expectations

Abstract

Abstract In this paper we derive a system of equations depicting agents' dynamic decision rules under nonstatic price expectations. Based on the adjustment cost model of the firm, the integrability conditions which can serve to guide the specification of flexible functional forms are established. A two‐stage econometric model permitting empirical examination of both the expectations formation process and the dynamic structure of the industry is estimated using two different data series for U.S. production agriculture. The estimation results suggest evidence of the presence of nonstatic price expectations in dynamic dual models for U.S. production agriculture.