Impact Analysis of Demand-Driven Shocks in Turkey's Tourism Industry within the Framework of the Social Accounting Matrix

Abstract

The ‘Incentives Programme for the Tourism Industry in Turkey’ foresees a high growth rate in inbound tourism revenues in the next 10 years. This study analyses the impact of various shocks on inbound tourism demand for Turkey. First, domestic and inbound tourism activities are separated by using the information provided in input–output tables and tourism satellite accounts. Second, social accounting matrix-based price multipliers are calculated to carry out analyses in which inbound tourism is included explicitly as one industry. The policy shocks involve a fall in energy prices and in the tax rate on tourism output. Hence, an upward pressure on inbound tourism demand is targeted via price changes in both the supply and demand sides of the industry. The empirical findings show that inter-industry effects are larger than the effects on inbound tourism, revealing that ‘price’ alone is not a satisfactory policy instrument for promoting the tourism industry. In other words, neither of the shocks employed is sufficiently influential to enable the tourism industry to reach the targets envisaged.