Mobilizations against the Iraq War in Spain: Background, Participants and Electoral Implications

Abstract

Abstract This paper aims to explain the nature of recent mobilizations against the Iraq War in Spain and their electoral implications. It first examines the evolution of the organizational features of Spanish peace movements since their emergence during the transition, linking them to both the broader evolution of the (leftist) social movements sector and the changing political context. The relationship between previous peace mobilization experiences and the spread among Spaniards of a peace culture is stressed. This ‘historical’ contextualization sheds light upon the nature of recent successful mass mobilizations against the Iraq War as well as their electoral relevance. The article also points out the influence of broader processes of change concerning political participation in representative democracies. Keywords: Peace MovementAnti-war MobilizationsIraq WarElectoral ImplicationsPolitical ParticipationSpain Notes [1] In fact, in contrast to the 1981 demonstration, in 2003 party leaders did not head the demonstration or figure among its speakers. [2] In 1977, the anti-military Movimiento de Objeción de Conciencia (Conscientious Objection Movement, MOC) emerged to defend the constitutional recognition of the right to conscientious objection to military service (Sampedro Citation1997). Also during the transition, a strong anti-nuclear movement opposed nuclear energy plants. Previously, opposition to the US military presence in Spain had been among the demands of anti-Francoist movements such as the student's movement. [3] The Coordinating Committee encompassed very diverse sectors that proved to be politically incompatible, to a large extent due to the political rivalry between extreme-left parties and the Communist Party of Spain (PCE) (see Fuente Citation1984; Gómariz 1987; Prevost Citation1993; Pastor Citation1998). [4] Given its duration and success, the campaign against compulsory military service can be considered the most relevant peace campaign in Europe during the 1990s (Ajangiz Citation2003; Prat Citation2004). Supportive public opinion also helped to carry out this massive campaign, as around 63 per cent of people in the 1980s and 75 per cent in the 1990s opposed compulsory military service (Ajangiz Citation2000). [5] Data on levels of mobilizations and public opinion illustrate this dynamic. Although 44 per cent of Spaniards opposed the NATO intervention in Kosovo, no more than 15,000 protesters participated in the largest demonstration (that took place in Madrid). Similar figures can be found for the military intervention in Afghanistan in 2001 (see Gordillo Citation2000; Citation2002). On the relationship between media coverage and level of mobilization in these campaigns see Alcalde (Citation2004). [6] Nevertheless, from 2004 onwards, with the PP in the opposition, these demonstrations have acquired a clear partisan character. [7] A compilation of newspaper reports on this protest event can be consulted at < http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_15,_2003_anti-war_protest>. See Morán (Citation2005) for an analysis of the press coverage of the demonstration in Madrid. [8] A total of 1,200 questionnaires were distributed among the demonstrators in Madrid, of which 452 (38 per cent) were correctly completed and returned. More than 20 volunteers participated in the distribution of the questionnaires. Two major problems may affect the representativeness of samples obtained by this surveying technique: the non-homogeneous distribution of participants along the space occupied by the demonstration and the selection bias associated with the type of survey administered (self-completed and returned by regular post). The strategy to counteract the impact of the first problem consisted of distributing questionnaires following an established protocol aimed at covering the maximum possible space of the demonstration (as well as to increase the questionnaire return rate). In order to control the selection bias associated with this type of postal-return survey, in some of the demonstrations (not in Madrid) a number of additional staff conducted interviews in order to control for potential bias in the sample of questionnaires mailed back to the researchers. When comparing the results of this sub-sample we found that the main bias was the (even) higher educational level of the demonstrators who completed the questionnaire at home. For more information on the project and the research procedure see CitationWalgrave and Rucht (forthcoming) or the project's webpage ( < http://webhost.ua.ac.be/m2p/IPPS/intro.htm>), where the questionnaire can also be consulted. For a more detailed descriptive analysis of the results see Jiménez (Citation2007). [9] Although, without a doubt, dissemination by the mass media was a critical mobilizing factor (see Morán Citation2005). [10] This confirms that level of education is one of the main impediments to the process of protest normalization, and is more significant as an indicator of the cognitive resources required by different forms of political participation. Furthermore, the survey procedure (self-completed postal questionnaire) may, indeed, have introduced a bias toward highly educated sectors, exacerbating the influence of this factor. [11] On the ideological scale, the average participant is situated on the left, with a score of 2.6. Note that the usual score for the overall Spanish population places between the 4 and 5 values (with the same scale: 4.4 in the 2002 European Social Survey [ESS]) Similarly, the average Spanish citizen is not interested in politics (e.g. only 21 per cent declared themselves to be interested or very interested in the ESS) and shows high levels of satisfaction with the functioning of democracy: ESS data reflect a positive average score of 5.7 on a 0–10 scale, where 0 means ‘completely unsatisfied’ and 10 ‘completely satisfied’ (ESS data obtained from Torcal et al. Citation2005). [12] This pattern is similar to the results obtained in other countries (see Walgrave & Rucht, forthcoming). [13] Based on different empirical studies, Norris (1999, p. 259) argues that the most cynical citizens tend to have the most unconventional activist profile. Political cynicism has been also associated with voters for persistently unsuccessful political formations (1999, p. 234). [14] The questionnaire included an open question about the respondents’ reasons for participating in the demonstration. Ninety-eight per cent of the respondents answered the open question, ‘Why have you decided to participate in this demonstration?’ 12 possible categories of answers were considered when codifying the responses, which comprised a total of 441 answers (for each interviewee a total of five reasons or motivations were codified by order of the responses). [15] Data available at < http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/2_barometros/indicadores_PI/electorales.html>. For a detailed political contextualization of the 2004 general results and an analysis of opinion poll trends see Santamaría (Citation2004), Chari (Citation2004), Torcal and Rico (Citation2004), Sanz and Sánchez-Sierra (Citation2005), van Biezen (Citation2005) and Blakely (Citation2006), among others.