Early returns: Results of the first wave of statistical studies of civil war termination

Abstract

The results of the first wave of large‐N studies of how civil wars end are brought together. The studies have significant problems and do not always agree. However, some conclusions are reached by two or more different studies: civil wars do end; secession is an unusual outcome but increased autonomy is not; most civil wars do not break out again; the post‐Cold War upsurge in civil wars has ended; some civil wars do end with negotiated settlements, especially prolonged ethnonationalist conflicts; most ethnic conflicts do not escalate into civil war; identity‐based civil wars seem similar to other civil wars except that settlements do not last as long. Several different databases have also been developed for future research. It is important that researchers both address one another more and work with those of different methodological persuasions to produce conclusions which will benefit both theory and public policy.