Asymptotic prediction mean squared error for vector autoregressive models

Abstract

This paper derives the asymptotic mean squared error of multistep prediction for the general vector autoregressive process. For one-step-ahead prediction the result is a surprisingly simple generalization of the result for the scalar autoregressive process. Results for multistep prediction are also derived for the regression model with autoregressive errors, where the set of exogenous variables follows a vector autoregressive process.