Uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modelling?a stochastic analysis of well-protection zones

Abstract

The paper reviews the problems of uncertainty in the definition of aquifer properties and the scale-dependence of dispersion with specific regard to well-capture zones. Stochastic methods have been developed in response to the problems of characterizing aquifer properties for contaminant transport modelling, as they provide a formal framework for the treatment of uncertainty. Their use for well-capture zone analysis, however, has been neglected so far. In this paper a stochastic numerical modelling procedure is presented, based on conditional geostatistical simulation of fine-scale aquifer structure, which is shown to reproduce stochastic analytical properties. The methodological approach is applied to the analysis of uncertainty in well-protection zones, and implications of the results for groundwater management are discussed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.