Contrasting probabilistic scoring rules

A Mathematical Theory of Communication

Claude E. Shannon · Bell System Technical Journal · 1948 · 80.7K citations

Engineering, Communication, Electrical Engineering +11

Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk

Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky · Econometrica · 1979 · 47K citations

Business, Decision Sciences, Insurance +17

Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation

Tilmann Gneiting, Adrian E. Raftery · Journal of the American Statistical Association · 2007 · 5.5K citations

Business, Mathematics, Forecasting +16

VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY

Glenn W. Brier · Monthly Weather Review · 1950 · 5.3K citations

Business, Mathematics, Meteorology +10

Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness

Tilmann Gneiting, Fadoua Balabdaoui, Adrian E. Raftery · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology) · 2007 · 1.7K citations

Business, Meteorology, Forecasting +16