Bifurcations and Dynamic Complexity in Simple Ecological Models

Abstract

Many biological populations breed seasonally and have nonoverlapping generations, so that their dynamics are described by first-order difference equations, Nt+1 = F (Nt). In many cases, F(N) as a function of N will have a hump. We show, very generally, that as such a hump steepens, the dynamics goes from a stable point, to a bifurcating hierarchy of stable cycles of period 2n, into a region of chaotic behavior where the population exhibits an apparently random sequence of "outbreaks" followed by "crashes." We give a detailed account of the underlying mathematics of this process and review other situations (in two- and higher dimensional systems, or in differential equation systems) where apparently random dynamics can arise from bifurcation processes. This complicated behavior, in simple deterministic models, can have disturbing implications for the analysis and interpretation of biological data.