Identifying and Acting on Early Warning Signs in Complex Projects

TLDR

Project professionals are not adept at detecting or acting on early warning signs, and the nature of these signs and their detection evolves with changing project circumstances. The study examines how to identify early warning signs in projects. Project assessments, typically part of gateways, are useful for spotting early warning signs linked to formal project elements. The study identifies barriers to detecting early warning signs, shows that higher complexity limits formal assessments and increases reliance on informal gut feeling, and highlights the growing importance of knowledge, experience, and communication skills, concluding with a list of early warning signs.

Abstract

We consider identification of early warning signs (EWS) in projects. Project professionals are not good at detecting or acting on EWS. Barriers that lead to this are identified. The nature of EWS and their detection change with the evolving situation. Project assessments, typically part of gateways, are useful in identifying EWS connected to the formalities of the project. As complexity increases, assessments have more limited use, and the project is increasingly dependent on detecting EWS by informal “gut feeling.” Thus, knowledge, experience, and communication skills are increasingly important in complex situations. We conclude with a list of early warning signs.