ASSESSMENT OF TRANSPORT POLICIES TOWARD FUTURE EMISSION TARGETS: A BACKCASTING APPROACH FOR STOCKHOLM 2030

Abstract

Stockholm has set a target for greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2030, based on the United Nation's (IPCC) recommendations for an acceptable CO 2 level in the atmosphere. In this study we use a backcasting framework to analyze a range of specific transport policies and fuel technology related developments with respect to the emission target. Our study employs a transport modelling system, traditionally used for forecasts, to quantify the impacts of various travel demand measures (TDM). Our study shows that the change in travel demand, induced by various travel policies, will not suffice on its own to reach the target. Even if fuel price is tripled, a substantial share of renewable fuels is required for target achievement. While our study shows that travel demand measures have a fairly small effect on CO 2 emissions, it also hints at other compelling reasons for introducing such measures. Constructive strategies for the transport system would not only contribute to reduce risks with climate change. Even small reductions of transport volumes might imply large socio economic savings in traffic related costs, reduced emissions of substances with health impacts, fewer accidents, shorter travel times and higher travel time reliability. These aspects are arguably all part of a sustainable transport development.