Estimating the Risk of Future Reading Difficulties in Kindergarten Children

TLDR

Speech‑language pathologists can play an important role in early identification of children at risk for reading difficulties, yet existing research lacks statistical models and classification data needed for implementation. The study longitudinally examined kindergarten predictors of second‑grade reading outcome in 604 children and proposes how these findings could inform early identification and intervention programs. The study assessed 604 kindergarteners with language, early literacy, and nonverbal cognitive measures, then followed up with reading achievement tests in second grade. Five kindergarten variables—letter identification, sentence imitation, phonological awareness, rapid naming, and mother’s education—uniquely predicted second‑grade reading outcome, and a logistic regression formula with classification data is provided.

Abstract

Speech-language pathologists have the skills and knowledge needed to play an important role in the early identification of children who are at risk for reading difficulties. Whereas research has identified language and other factors that may be predictive of future reading problems, studies have not provided the statistical models and classification data needed for the implementation of early identification programs. In this paper, we report the results of a longitudinal study that examined kindergarten predictors of second-grade reading outcome.Six hundred and four children were given a battery of language, early literacy, and nonverbal cognitive measures in kindergarten as part of an epidemiologic study of language impairments in children. Follow-up testing of reading achievement was completed in second grade. Participants were divided into those children with and without reading difficulties.Findings indicated that five kindergarten variables (letter identification, sentence imitation, phonological awareness, rapid naming, and mother's education) uniquely predicted reading outcome in second grade.A logistic regression formula and classification data based on these results are provided. Suggestions are offered concerning how this information could be used in an early identification and intervention program for children who are at risk for reading difficulties.