Numerical modeling of the Arctic Ocean ice system response to variations in the atmospheric circulation from 1948 to 2007

Abstract

The results of model calculations aimed at reproducing climate changes in the Arctic Ocean due to variations in the atmospheric circulation are presented. The combined ocean-ice numerical model is based on NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data and its modified version of CIAF on the state of the lower atmosphere, radiative fluxes, and precipitation from 1948 to the present. The numerical experiments reveal the effect of the ice cover, water circulation, and thermohaline structure of the Arctic Ocean on variations in the state of the atmosphere. We found the heating and cooling periods in the Atlantic water layer, as well as the freshwater accumulation regimes in the Canadian Basin and freshwater flow through the Fram Strait and Canadian Archipelago straits. The numerical model reproduces a reconfiguration of the water circulation of the surface and intermediate layers of the ocean, a shift in the boundary between Atlantic and Pacific waters, and a significant reduction of the ice area.