Adaptation strategies to global change for water resources management in the Spree river Catchment, Germany

Abstract

Abstract Computer models for long‐term simulations of water resources management strategies are used in the analysis of water availability problems in river basins. Such models can also be used for the examination of global change impacts, which are characterised by changed natural water yield and water demand due to climate and socio‐economic changes. Already existing water quantity and water quality problems in the catchments of the river Spree and the river Schwarze Elster were analysed in the context of global change. The main water quantity issues are caused by the future development of the mining industry and climate change. The effects of these future developments were analysed using the long‐term water resources management model WBalMo. Subsequently, adaptation strategies were defined in co‐operation with the relevant stakeholders and their effects analysed with the same model. The results show that continuation of the existing water resources management strategy will not be able to compensate for the impacts of global change. However, a changed management strategy might compensate the impacts for some users. Keywords: Water resources managementstochastic modellingglobal changeclimate changescenario analysis