Multicriteria Planning of Post‐Earthquake Sustainable Reconstruction

TLDR

The multicriteria model can treat all relevant conflicting effects and impacts in their representative units. A multicriteria model is developed to analyze planning strategies for reducing future social and economic costs in hazard‑prone areas. The decision‑making procedure generates sustainable reconstruction alternatives, assigns criteria weights, and ranks them with the VIKOR method, while a fuzzy extension handles imprecision in qualitative or incomplete data. The fuzzy multicriteria model successfully addresses uncertainty in qualitative criteria, enabling evaluation of reconstruction scenarios.

Abstract

A multicriteria model is developed for analyzing the planning strategies for reducing the future social and economic costs in the area with potential natural hazard. The developed multicriteria decision‐making procedure consists of generating alternatives, establishing criteria, assessment of criteria weights, and application of the compromise ranking method (VIKOR). The alternatives are the scenarios of sustainable hazard effects mitigation, generated in the form of comprehensive reconstruction plans, including the redevelopment of urban areas and infrastructures, multipurpose land use, and restrictions on building in hazardous areas. The plans have to be evaluated according to the criteria representing public safety, sustainability, social environment, natural environment, economy, culture, and politics. The multicriteria model can treat all relevant conflicting effects and impacts in their representative units. The evaluation of alternatives is implicated with imprecision (or uncertainty) of established criteria, and the fuzzy multicriteria model is developed to deal with “qualitative” (unquantifiable or linguistic) or incomplete information. The application of this model is illustrated with the post‐earthquake reconstruction problem in Central Taiwan, including the restoration concerning the safe and serviceable operation of “lifeline” systems, such as electricity, water, and transportation networks, immediately after a severe earthquake.