Dire Strait? Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Confrontation and Options for U.S. Policy

Abstract

Even a half century after the birth of the People's Republic of China (PRC), the Taiwan Strait remains the locus of one of the most dangerous military confrontations in the world. In recent years, a series of Chinese military exercises coupled with the ongoing modernization of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) have seemed to raise the stakes in this long-standing staredown and likewise increased its visibility, especially in the United States. This report looks at the near-term military balance between China and Taiwan. Mixing quantitative and qualitative analysis, it explores a range of key factors that affect the ROC's self-defense capabilities and suggests ways that the United States can effectively contribute to improving the odds in Taipei's favor.