Temporal causality and the dynamics of foreign direct investment and trade in Vietnam

Abstract

Our article investigates the temporal causation between foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade in Vietnam for the period 1990–2007. We first employ Granger causality tests in a co-integration framework, where the order of lags for each variable is selected by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (SBIC). Granger causality tests are then performed in both bi- and multi-variate models. In the short-run, we find evidence of bi-directional Granger causality between FDI and exports and between FDI and imports. Our analysis also establishes the existence of long-run unidirectional Granger causality running from FDI to exports and to imports.