Exchange Rates and "Unfair Trade"

Abstract

An examination of the changing country pattern of dumping and subsidy complaints by U.S. companies over time suggests that exchange rate fluctuations are a significant factor in determining case filings, especially against Japanese companies. The inverse relationship observed between filings and the real external value of the U.S. dollar is consistent both with the traditional (or technical) interpretation of dumping and subsidy cases, and with the view that they are promoted by rent-seeking activities of lawyers and economists representing petitioners. While this result says nothing about the merits of any particular case, it cautions that the prevalence of unfair trade is not exogenous with respect to broader macroeconomic considerations. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.