Crime, Punishment and Deterrence in Australia: An Empirical Investigation*

Abstract

This paper provides empirical estimates of the determinants of crime rates in Australia. It differs from most modern criminological analysis by being aggregative rather than offender‐based and by deriving from the economic approach to criminal behaviour. Its major finding is that court committals and imprisonments have operated as major deterrent factors in explaining variations in recorded crime rates. These deterrence results seem especially strong and robust. Improved measurement, however, could alter the findings for some other influences examined. The paper considers the relationship of these research findings to criminal justice policy.