George Bush and the 102d Congress: The Impact of Public and “Private” Veto Threats on Policy Outcomes

Abstract

Using archival data uncovered at the George Bush Presidential Library in College Station, Texas, this article develops a typology of veto threats and compares the effect of “private” and “public” veto threats on policy outcomes in the 102d Congress (1991‐1992) by legislative significance. The results suggest that formal models of veto threats have overstated the centrality of public rhetoric for an effective strategy. Private veto threats issued outside the public eye halted a host of minor legislation to which Bush objected. Veto threats that started off behind the scenes, only to be made public later, served as early signals that frequently won the president concessions on routine bills. By contrast, public threats on highly salient legislation were most likely to yield vetoes and inter‐branch confrontation.