Calculation of the remaining lifetime of power transformers paper insulation

Abstract

This paper presents the remaining lifetime calculation of power transformers paper insulation and consequently of power transformers. The calculations are performed based on two models, which are related to the thermal degradation of the cellulose winding paper insulation: the common IEC loading guide and a paper degradation model. The paper insulation model's prediction can be improved by involving data from furfural analysis. The remaining lifetime is extracted from the fault probability (reliability) of the paper insulation. The two models are brought together, to aid the asset manager in the decision making process. A probabilistic approach is used, which can be coupled to analysis in terms of risks, benefits, costs, and availability by the asset manager.