The Pacific Review · 2005 · 82 citations · 47 references
Social SciencesEconomicsInternational RelationsInternational EconomicsInternational Political EconomyInternational TradeAsian EconomiesEast Asian StudiesInternational CooperationRegional PolicyRegional Political EconomyTheories Of Regional IntegrationInformal Sector IntegrationInstitutional BargainingInstitutions Of Regional IntegrationInternational Trade RegimesMultilateral Trade RegimeMultilateral Trade RelationsPolitical Institutionalization
At the turn of the new millennium, East Asian economic integration—dominated by WTO multilateralism and informal regional market ties—is under strain as more Northeast and Southeast Asian countries pursue institutionalized sub‑multilateral preferential trading arrangements. The study examines the emerging institutional equilibrium in Northeast Asia and its implications for East Asia and beyond, developing a fine‑grained typology of trade management modes and exploring pathways toward formal economic integration. The authors analyze political and economic arguments for regionalism, construct a typology of unilateral, bilateral, minilateral, and multilateral trade arrangements, and apply an institutional bargaining‑game framework to assess how arrangements evolved after the Asian financial crisis and to evaluate potential integration paths. They argue that conventional explanations fail to distinguish trading arrangement forms, and their bargaining‑game analysis shows that the evolution of East Asian trade arrangements post‑crisis is shaped by individual country circumstances, suggesting that formal integration in Northeast Asia may lead to outcomes beyond the region.
Abstract At the turn of the new millennium, the traditional institutional equilibrium of East Asian economic integration – the embrace of the WTO at the multilateral level and a focus on market-driven, informal integration at the regional level – is under heavy strain. A growing number of Northeast and Southeast Asian countries are pursuing greater institutionalization at the sub-multilateral level, actively weaving a web of preferential trading arrangements. To examine this development, we focus on the likely new institutional equilibrium in Northeast Asia and its implications for East Asia and beyond. We first examine the various political and economic arguments that have been advanced to explain states' desire to pursue 'regionalism'. From our perspective, most conventional explanations fail to adequately differentiate various forms of trading arrangements, thereby impairing both theoretical and empirical analysis of trading arrangements. To remedy this lacuna, we develop a more fine-grained typology of different modes of trade management – unilateral, bilateral, minilateral and multilateral. We then discuss an institutional bargaining-game approach focusing on goods, countries' individual situations and the fit with existing arrangements. This approach is used to analyze how trade arrangements evolved in East Asia in the 1990s, particularly after the Asian financial crisis. We then explore several paths that might lead to formal economic integration in Northeast Asia. Finally, we consider other possible outcomes beyond Northeast Asia.
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