Regional Inequalities and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

TLDR

Case‑study evidence links inequality to civil war, yet large‑N country studies rarely find a significant relationship, possibly because they ignore spatial variation within countries where conflicts often occur. The study aims to fill this gap by using GIS operations on Demographic and Health Survey data to create disaggregated welfare and socioeconomic inequality measures for 22 Sub‑Saharan African countries. These measures are combined with geographic data on conflict zones from 1986–2004 to examine regional patterns of war onset. Conflict onsets are more likely in regions with low education, high relative deprivation in household assets, strong intraregional inequalities, and the simultaneous presence of natural resources and relative deprivation.

Abstract

The case study literature is ripe with examples of a positive association between inequality and civil war, but systematic country-level studies have largely failed to find a significant relationship. One reason for this discrepancy may be that large-N studies tend to ignore spatial variations in group welfare within countries, although civil wars often take place within limited areas. We address this gap in the literature by applying GIS operations to Demographic and Health Surveys to construct new disaggregated data on welfare and socioeconomic inequalities between and within subnational regions in 22 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. These measures are coupled with geographical data on the location of conflict zones for the period 1986–2004. We find that conflict onsets are more likely in regions with (1) low levels of education; (2) strong relative deprivation regarding household assets; (3) strong intraregional inequalities; and (4) combined presence of natural resources and relative deprivation.