Assessment of varicella underreporting in Italy

Abstract

We conducted a study to assess the degree of varicella underreporting in Italy, and its distribution by age group and geographical area. Underreporting in individuals from 6 months to 20 years of age was computed as the ratio between the varicella seroprevalence in 1996 and the 1996 lifetime cumulative incidence based on statutory notifications. The degree of underreporting at the national level was 7.7 (95% CI 7.4-7.9); underreporting was greater in older age groups and in southern Italy. Quantification of underreporting can contribute to better understanding of the burden of varicella and to evaluating the potential impact of mass vaccination.