A META‐ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTORS OF ADULT OFFENDER RECIDIVISM: WHAT WORKS!*

TLDR

Meta‑analytic techniques were used to determine which predictor domains and actuarial assessment instruments were the best predictors of adult offender recidivism. Across 131 studies yielding 1,141 correlations, the strongest predictors of recidivism were criminogenic needs, criminal history, social achievement, age/gender/race, and family factors, while dynamic predictors performed as well as static ones and the LSI‑R emerged as the most useful actuarial measure, leading to recommendations for improved assessment practices.

Abstract

Meta‐analytic techniques were used to determine which predictor domains and actuarial assessment instruments were the best predictors of adult offender recidivism. One hundred and thirty‐one studies produced 1,141 correlations with recidivism. The strongest predictor domains were criminogenic needs, criminal history/history of antisocial behavior, social achievement, age/gender/race, and family factors. Less robust predictors included intellectual functioning, personal distress factors, and socioeconomic status in the family of origin. Dynamic predictor domains performed at least as well as the static domains. The LSI‐R was identified as the most useful actuarial measure. Recommendations for developing sound assessment practices in corrections are provided.