Commodity Spot Prices: An Exploratory Assessment of Market Structure and Forward‐Trading Effects

Abstract

We assess how characteristics of product and forward markets affect levels and volatilities of commodity spot prices. We examine (i) how product market structure and forward market trading affect spot market games, (ii) the links between product market structure and spot price stability, (iii) whether forward trading destabilizes spot prices, and (iv) how information arrival affects price volatility and the volume of trade. We find that market structure models of the price level but not of price stability receive support, that increased forward trading leads to lower prices, and that the relationship between trading and price instability is indirect via a common causal factor.