Modeling of subjective judgments made by a researcher-modeler about the model of the research object

Abstract

Methods are considered for the mathematic modeling of incomplete and unreliable knowledge about the model M(x) of the research object expressed in the form of subjective judgments made by the researcher-modeler (r-m) about the possible values of the unknown parameter x ∈ X defining the model. The mathematical model of subjective judgments is defined as the space (X, P(X), $Pl^{\tilde x} $ , $Bel^{\tilde x} $ ), in which the indeterminate element (i.el.) $\tilde x$ characterizes (as an undefined propositional variable) the subjective judgments made by the r-m about the validity of each value x ∈ X by the values of measures such as the plausibility $Pl^{\tilde x} $ of the equality $\tilde x$ = x, and belief $Bel^{\tilde x} $ in the inequality $\tilde x$ ≠ x. If there are observational data on the subject, available to the r-m he can use them to construct an empirical estimate of the i.el. $\tilde x$ and an empirical model (X, P(X), $Pl^{\tilde x} $ , $Bel^{\tilde x} $ ) of the subjective judgments about possible values of x ∈ X.